February 7 Optimal Entry Point

Analysis of optimal entry point during February:

On February 7 from 9:40AM-10:30AM UTC+2, the price of bitcoin was below every creation cost except for the most efficient machine at the time: a fully depreciated S9. This was one of the most optimal times to purchase bitcoin in 2019. 

At this moment, the miners (the most invested party in bitcoin) were buying bitcoins because it was cheaper to buy bitcoins than create them. Their buying pressure would not allow the spot price to fall below this point. Had the price dipped below the lowest price floor, the miners would have had to lower the hash rate. 

The data: 


With weighted values, the floor price can be calculated almost exactly. With a weighted fundamental price floor, the risk of any bitcoin investment can be measured. Barring a hash rate drop, the price of bitcoin would not fall below the price of $3370.28. The hash rate is variable, but it is publicly available in realtime and any investment can be modified on the market to match the variability. 

Aaron Singer